Dramatic Climate Change is Unpredictable
This is a schematic picture of the climate represented by the red ball. The climate can be located in two different states, the two valleys on each side of a hill. In the first scenario the climate is like a seesaw. If the outside influences increase or, for example, increased CO2 makes the weight heavier on the other side, the seesaw will tip forcing the climate over into the other state. The climate change would be predictable. In the second scenario, the hill is fixed and a series of small chaotic kicks from wind and weather could cause it to roll over into the other state. This climate change is unpredictable. Mathematically speaking, the first scenario is a "bifurcation" and the second scenario "noise-induced transition". (Credit: Peter Ditlevsen)
The fear that global temperature can change very quickly and cause dramatic climate changes that may have a disastrous impact on many countries and populations is great around the world. But what causes climate change and is it possible to predict future climate change? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen shows that it may be due to an accumulation of different chaotic influences and as a result would be difficult to predict. The results have just been published in Geophysical Research Letters.
For millions of years the Earth’s climate has alternated between about 100,000 years of ice age and approximately 10-15,000 years of a warm climate like we have today. The climate change is controlled by the Earth’s orbit in space, that is to say the Earth’s tilt and distance from the sun. But there are also other climatic shifts in the Earth’s history and what caused those?
Dramatic climate change of the past
By analysing the ice cores that are drilled through the more than three kilometer thick ice sheet in Greenland, scientists can obtain information about the temperature and climate going back around 140,000 years. (more…)
Review Finds UN Climate Body Needs Fundamental Reform
Harold T. Shapiro, president emeritus and professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University. (Photo courtesy of Princeton University)
The process used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce its periodic assessment reports has been successful overall, but IPCC needs to fundamentally reform its management structure and strengthen its procedures to handle ever larger and increasingly complex climate assessments as well as the more intense public scrutiny coming from a world grappling with how best to respond to climate change, says a new report from the InterAcademy Council (IAC), an Amsterdam-based organization of the world’s science academies.
“Operating under the public microscope the way IPCC does requires strong leadership, the continued and enthusiastic participation of distinguished scientists, an ability to adapt, and a commitment to openness if the value of these assessments to society is to be maintained,” said Harold T. Shapiro, president emeritus and professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University in the United States and chair of the committee that wrote the report. Roseanne Diab, executive officer of the Academy of Science of South Africa and professor emeritus of environmental sciences and honorary senior research associate at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, served as vice chair of the committee, which included experts from several countries and a variety of disciplines.
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to inform policy decisions through periodic assessments of what is known about the physical scientific aspects of climate change, its global and regional impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Representatives of 194 participating governments make up the Panel, which sets the scope of the assessments, elects the Bureau that oversees them, and approves the Summaries for Policymakers that accompany the massive assessment reports themselves, which are prepared by thousands of scientists who volunteer for three Working Groups. (more…)
Scientists Projected an Increase in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Weather Events
As reported on the website of the World Meteorological Organization: Several diverse extreme weather events are occurring concurrently around the world, giving rise to an unprecedented loss of human life and property. They include the record heatwave and wildfires in the Russian Federation, monsoonal flooding in Pakistan, rain-induced landslides in China, and calving of a large iceberg from the Greenland ice sheet. These should be added to the extensive list of extreme weather-related events, such as droughts and fires in Australia and a record number of high-temperature days in the eastern United States of America, as well as other events that occurred earlier in the year.
The heatwave in the European part of the Russian Federation is associated with a persistent pressure ridge that appeared in June 2010. Initially, it was associated with the Azores high, but later was reinforced by a strong inflow of warm air from the Middle East. More than 20 daily temperature records were broken including the absolute maximum temperature in Moscow. The high temperatures triggered massive forest and peat fires in the European part of the country. Some villages were burned completely, with smoke and smog adversely and greatly affecting the health and well-being of tens of millions of people. (more…)
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Capture, Regionally
A new report, Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Capture, commissioned by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, examines the evidence for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sequestration in America’s major agroecosystems.
The report summarizes current knowledge of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions and capture across six regions—Northeast, Southeast, Corn Belt, Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and Pacific—as influenced by cropping system, tillage, and soil management. The report also outlines conservation agricultural systems and practices including: no-till, reduced tillage, cover crops, leguminous green manures, and nutrient-use efficiency—that, when adopted, will result in increased capture and reduced emissions of these GHGs. Additionally, critical knowledge gaps for research are identified. The full report can be viewed online at: https://www.agronomy.org/files/science-policy/ghg-report-august-2010.pdf.
American Society of Agronomy President Fran Pierce said, “This timely report identifies critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to provide America’s farmers with the management strategies and tools needed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG emissions. Pierce added that, “Adoption of conservation agricultural systems, in addition to reducing emissions of GHGs, also enhances the productivity of our nation’s agroecosystems, thereby ensuring future domestic and global food and energy security.” (more…)
Climate Models Indicate Future Holds Stronger, Longer Heat Waves for Mid-Latitudes
Orange County, Indiana
Heat waves are a growing concern and current climate models indicate they will increase in duration and intensity especially in the mid-latitudes of which Indiana and the Midwest is a part,” says climate researcher and Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) Professor Daniel Johnson.
“Heat waves are known to kill hundreds of people in the United States every year and are the leading cause of weather-related fatalities; usually outstripping the combined effects of hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning and flash floods. ”
“One of the most likely disasters to strike the Central Indiana region is an extreme heat event of considerable duration and strength, the researcher says.
Johnson, a geography professor in the School of Liberal Arts at IUPUI, and colleagues of the Indiana University Institute for Research and Social Issues, are currently conducting two studies on the impact of heat waves on vulnerable populations within urbanized areas. The goal is to develop vulnerability models designed to assist emergency personnel in their response and mitigation to heat wave incidents. (more…)
DOE Designates Center for Ocean Energy Technology a National Center
This is a rendering of a 20kW multi-use research turbine under development at FAU’s Center for Ocean Energy Technology which will be a platform to test and develop new ocean current technologies. (Florida Atlantic University)
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has designated the Center for Ocean Energy Technology (COET) at Florida Atlantic University as a national center for ocean energy research and development. The new Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy Center (SNMREC) at FAU joins centers in the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii that also work to advance the operational readiness of ocean energy technologies. DOE will fund the SNMREC to undertake research and development of technologies capable of generating renewable energy from ocean currents and ocean thermal energy. FAU is ideally located to oversee the development of technologies that can generate sustainable, cost-competitive electricity from the ocean energy resources in the Florida Straits and the Gulf Stream. With this competitively-selected investment, DOE is expanding the nation’s assets for testing and deploying innovative new approaches to clean energy generation. Innovative approaches are crucial to addressing climate change and building a strong, renewable energy economy, both in Florida and across the nation.
“This is a very proud day for our University, our state and the nation,” said FAU President Mary Jane Saunders. “This prestigious, national designation of our Center for Ocean Energy Technology is a testimony to the expertise of our researchers and staff and their commitment to provide a viable source of clean, renewable energy for Florida citizens and beyond.” (more…)
The Worst Impact of Climate Change May Be How Humanity Reacts To It
One fifth of the world's remaining tropical forests lie within 50km of human populations that could be inundated if sea levels rise by 1m. These forests would make attractive sources of fuel-wood, building materials, food and other key resources.
The way that humanity reacts to climate change may do more damage to many areas of the planet than climate change itself unless we plan properly, an important new study published in Conservation Letters by Conservation International’s Will Turner and a group of other leading scientists has concluded.
The paper Climate change: helping nature survive the human response, looks at efforts to both reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and potential action that could be taken by people to adapt to a changed climate and assesses the potential impact that these could have on global ecosystems.
In particular it notes that one fifth of the world’s remaining tropical forests lie within 50km of human populations that could be inundated if sea levels rise by 1m. These forests would make attractive sources of fuel-wood, building materials, food and other key resources and would be likely to attract a population forced to migrate by rising sea levels. About half of all Alliance for Zero Extinction sites – which contain the last surviving members of certain species – are also in these zones.
Dr Turner said: “There are numerous studies looking at the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, but very little time has been taken to consider what our responses to climate change might do to the planet.” (more…)
Global Tropical Forests Threatened by 2100
The green areas are the distribution of refugia from recent deforestation, logging, and moderate and severe climate impacts in the tropical humid forests of the world. (Credit: Conservation Letters and Greg Asner)
By 2100 only 18% to 45% of the plants and animals making up ecosystems in global, humid tropical forests may remain as we know them today, according to a new study led by Greg Asner at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. The research combined new deforestation and selective logging data with climate-change projections. It is the first study to consider these combined effects for all humid tropical forest ecosystems and can help conservationists pinpoint where their efforts will be most effective. The study is published in the August 5, 2010, issue of Conservation Letters.
“This is the first global compilation of projected ecosystem impacts for humid tropical forests affected by these combined forces,” remarked Asner. “For those areas of the globe projected to suffer most from climate change, land managers could focus their efforts on reducing the pressure from deforestation, thereby helping species adjust to climate change, or enhancing their ability to move in time to keep pace with it. On the flip side, regions of the world where deforestation is projected to have fewer effects from climate change could be targeted for restoration.”
Tropical forests hold more then half of all the plants and animal species on Earth. But the combined effect of climate change, forest clear cutting, and logging may force them to adapt, move, or die.
The scientists looked at land use and climate change by integrating global deforestation and logging maps from satellite imagery and high-resolution data with projected future vegetation changes from 16 different global climate models. They then ran scenarios on how different types of species could be geographically reshuffled by 2100.They used the reorganization of plant classes, such as tropical broadleaf evergreen trees, tropical drought deciduous trees, plus different kinds of grasses as surrogates for biodiversity changes. (more…)
Traveling By Car Increases Global Temperatures More Than by Plane, But Only In Long Term
Traveling by car contributes to global warming much more than traveling by bus, motorcycle, or train. (Credit: iStock)
Driving a car increases global temperatures in the long run more than making the same long-distance journey by air according to a new study. However, in the short run travelling by air has a larger adverse climate impact because airplanes strongly affect short-lived warming processes at high altitudes. The study appears in ACS’ Environmental Science & Technology, a semi-weekly journal.
In the study, Jens Borken-Kleefeld and colleagues compare the impacts on global warming of different means of transport. The researchers use, for the first time, a suite of climate chemistry models to consider the climate effects of all long- and short-lived gases, aerosols and cloud effects, not just carbon dioxide, resulting from transport worldwide. They concluded that in the long run the global temperature increase from a car trip will be on average higher than from a plane journey of the same distance. However, in the first years after the journey, air travel increases global temperatures four times more than car travel. Passenger trains and buses cause four to five times less impact than automobile travel for every mile a passenger travels. The findings prove robust despite the scientific uncertainties in understanding the earth’s climate system. (more…)
The Real Urban Jungle
How well do you understand life in your own backyard? Cities and suburbs form their own unique ecosystems and ecology, where humans aren’t visitors; they are an integral component, like trees in a forest or coral in a reef. If more than half of the Earth’s people live in cities and the amount of paved surfaces in the United States is equivalent to the area of Ohio, shouldn’t our sciences thrive in the city?
Urban Ecosystem Ecology is a new book from the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), the Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and the Soil Science Society of America (SSSA). It takes on the important task of reconciling environmental sciences with the world’s growing urbanization. From wildlife to water, from urban agriculture to low-impact development, we need a better understanding of the urban ecosystem.
“Urban Ecosystem Ecology explores the ecology of urban and suburban ecosystems in its traditional sense, but it puts humans into the ecosystem rather than assigning them positions of onlookers or polluters,” say editors Jacqueline Aitkenhead-Peterson and Astrid Volder. “Just as the environment of aquatic species may change because of beaver dams, or the environment of insects may change because of hurricanes, we will explore the environment of wildlife, vegetation, and soil in the circumstances of urbanization. Readers will especially benefit from a synthesis of the literature, results from urban ecosystems, and modified methods of analysis.”
Jacqueline Aitkenhead-Peterson is an Assistant Professor of Urban Water and Nutrient Management within the Soil and Crop Science department at Texas A&M University. Her research and teaching have focused on stream chemistry and the impact of land use/land cover management on soil and freshwater nutrient dynamics. (more…)
New Carbon Dioxide Emissions Model
Fig.: Evolution of the carbon dioxide emissions calculated by the model (left) and the temporal development of the global mean annual temperature (right). In order to achieve the long-term stabilisation of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, fossil carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to around zero by the end of the century. The black lines represent the observed values. (GtC/year = gigatons carbon/year) (Image: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated projected temperature changes for various scenarios in 2007 and researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg have now gone one step further: they have developed a new model that specifies the maximum volumes of carbon dioxide that humans may emit to remain below the critical threshold for climate warming of two degrees Celsius. To do this, the scientists incorporated into their calculations data relating to the carbon cycle, namely the volume of carbon dioxide absorbed and released by the oceans and forests. The aim of the international ENSEMBLES project is to simulate future changes in the global climate and carbon dioxide emissions and thereby to obtain more reliable threshold values on this basis. (Climatic Change, July 21, 2010)
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by the combustion of fossil fuels (gas, oil) has increased by around 35 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. If carbon dioxide emissions and, as a result, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to increase unchecked, a drastic increase in the global temperature can be expected before the end of this century. With the help of new models for a prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, scientists from all over Europe have now calculated for the first time the extent to which the global carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to halt global warming. (more…)
When Climate Change Becomes a Health Issue, Are People More Likely To Listen?
Edward Maibach
Framing climate change as a public health problem seems to make the issue more relevant, significant and understandable to members of the public—even some who don’t generally believe climate change is happening, according to preliminary research by George Mason University’s Center for Climate Change Communication (4C).
The center recently conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people’s reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. They found that on the whole, people who read the essay reacted positively to the information.
Previous research conducted by Mason investigators and others, using people’s beliefs, behaviors and policy preferences about global warming as assessed in a national survey, identified six distinct segments of Americans, termed Global Warming’s Six Americas.
In the current research, 4C director Edward Maibach interviewed approximately one dozen people in each of the Six Americas after they read the brief essay on the human health implications of global warming. As expected, he found that members of the audience segments who already believe strongly that climate change is happening had a strong positive response to the new information, while people who are less sure if climate change is happening also found value in the information. Nearly half of the comments made by members of the “Disengaged” segment, for example, indicated that the essay reflected their personal point of view, was informative or thought-provoking or offered valuable prescriptive information on how to take action relative to climate change. Moreover, about 40 percent of those people in the “Doubtful” segment had similar positive reactions to the essay. (more…)
Reports Detail Global Investment and Other Trends in Green Energy
This image is of Horse Hollow Wind Farm, US. (Credit: GWEC)
In 2009, for the second year in a row, both the US and Europe added more power capacity from renewable sources such as wind and solar than conventional sources like coal, gas and nuclear, according to twin reports launched today by the United Nations Environment Programme and the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21).
Renewables accounted for 60 per cent of newly installed capacity in Europe and more than 50 per cent in the USA in 2009. This year or next, experts predict, the world as a whole will add more capacity to the electricity supply from renewable than non-renewable sources.
The reports detail trends in the global green energy sector, including which sources attracted the greatest attention from investors and governments in different world regions.
They say investment in core clean energy (new renewables, biofuels and energy efficiency) decreased by 7% in 2009, to $162 billion. Many sub-sectors declined significantly in money invested, including large (utility) scale solar power and biofuels. However, there was record investment in wind power. If spending on solar water heaters, as well as total installation costs for rooftop solar PV, were included, total investment in 2009 actually increased in 2009, bucking the economic trend. (more…)
New Research Shows Why Some Communities Embrace Environmental Conservation and Others Don’t
Continued support for off-shore oil drilling by Gulf Coast residents who are dealing with one of the most devastating environmental disasters in U.S. history might seem surprising, but new research from the University of New Hampshire shows that local factors such as unemployment and population growth influence views about the value of environmental conservation and regulation.
The research is presented in the most recent issue of the journal Rural Sociology in the article “Place Effects on Environmental Views.”
“Our research shows that people who live in rural areas with high unemployment rates are less likely to support environmental regulations. Economic pressures help to understand why, in spite of the devastation caused by the BP oil spill, many residents of the Gulf Coast oppose a moratorium on off-shore drilling,” said Larry Hamilton, professor of sociology, senior fellow at the Carsey Institute at UNH, and lead author of the study. The study is co-authored by Chris Colocousis, assistant professor at James Madison University, and Mil Duncan, director of the Carsey Institute at UNH. (more…)
“Global Warring” Author Cleo Paskal Video
Cleo Paskal (Photo courtesy Chatham House)
As her entry in the Wikipedea outlines:
Cleo Paskal ( aka C Paskal) is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, (aka Royal Institute of International Affairs), Adjunct Faculty in the Department of Geopolitics, Manipal University, India and Adjunct Professor of Global Change, School of Communication and Management Studies, Kochi, India. Also she is a consultant for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Global Energy and Environment Strategic Ecosystem and a Huffington Post blogger.
She is a geopolitical expert who specializes in the geopolitical, security, and economic implications of evironmental change (including climate change). Her book on the topic, Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map was published by Key Porter Books in Canada and in 2010 by Palgrave Macmillan in the US, UK and rest of the English speaking world. Global Warring won one of three US$5000 Awards of Merit in the 2010 Grantham Prize for Excellence in Reporting on the Environment competition.
Quote of Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Maldives, from Global Warring: “We can do nothing to stop climate change on our own and so we have to buy land elsewhere. It’s an insurance policy for the worst possible outcome. After All, the Isrealis (began by buying) land in Palestine.” (more…)
Breath of the Earth: Cycling Carbon Through TYerrestrial Ecosystems
This is the Eddy-Flux-Tower in the Hainich National Park, Germany. (Image courtesy of Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)
Two recent international studies are poised to change the way scientists view the crucial relationship between Earth’s climate and the carbon cycle. These reports explore the global photosynthesis and respiration rates—the planet’s deep “breaths” of carbon dioxide, in and out—and researchers say that the new findings will be used to update and improve upon traditional models that couple together climate and carbon.
The two reports will be published online by the journal Science at the Science Express Web site at 6 p.m., US ET, Monday, 5 July. Science is published by AAAS, the nonprofit science society.
Christian Beer from the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, along with colleagues from 10 other countries around the world, first take a look at Earth’s Gross Primary Production, or GPP, which represents the total amount of carbon dioxide that terrestrial plants breathe in through photosynthesis each year. With a novel combination of observations and modeling, they estimate the total amount of carbon that the world’s plant life inhales annually is 123 billion metric tons.
Then, Miguel Mahecha, also from the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, and another international team of researchers settle a long-standing debate over the effects of short-term variations in air temperature on ecosystem respiration, or the Earth’s exhalation of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. They show that the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to short-term variations in temperature is similar around the world. The researchers also suggest that factors other than temperature, such as the slow, ongoing transformations of carbon in the soil and water availability, appear to play crucial roles in long-term ecosystem carbon balances. (more…)
Ethical Issues Ignored in Sustainability Education and Research
MSU's Michael Nelson is co-author of a paper published in the journal Bioscience that says ethical issues are ignored in the teaching and research of sustainabilty. Nelson is an associate professor in the Lyman Briggs College, as well as the departments of Fisheries and Wildlife and Philosophy.
Just about everyone agrees that sustainability – cutting energy use, reducing carbon emissions and, in general, keeping the Earth green – is a good thing. But why do we think that? Do we support sustainability for the right reasons?
These are among the questions that Michigan State University’s Michael Nelson addresses in a paper published this month in the journal Bioscience titled “Sustainability: Virtuous or Vulgar?”
Specifically, Nelson and co-author John Vucetich of Michigan Technological University argue that the issue of ethics is a vital component in the teaching and research of sustainability, but one that is sorely lacking.
“This debate,” they write, “has almost entirely neglected a fundamental dimension of sustainability – the ethical dimension. Lack of attention to the ethical dimension of sustainability is stifling progress toward sustainability.”
Or, as Nelson puts it: “If we don’t know where we’re going, we won’t know when we get there.” (more…)
A Conversation with James Hansen
Dr. James Hansen, Director of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is considered by many to be the foremost climatologist in the world. From his New York City office, he spoke with Climate Crisis Coalition Coordinator Tom Stokes, on May 10, 2008, about the science of climate change, the urgency of enacting effective climate legislation and why he is speaking out about it.
Photo by World Development Movement. CC Attribution 2.0 Generic
New Green, Bio-Based Process for Producing Fuel Additive
Thomas Bobik, professor of biochemistry, biophysics and molecular biology, along with David Gogerty, a doctoral student, invented a process for manufacturing isobutene (isobutylene) by identifying a new, natural enzyme that produces the fuel organically.
A new green, bio-based method for producing a much-used fuel additive and industrial chemical that is currently made from petroleum products has been developed by an Iowa State University researcher.
Thomas Bobik, professor of biochemistry, biophysics and molecular biology, invented a process for manufacturing isobutene (isobutylene) by identifying a new, natural enzyme that produces the fuel organically.
Bobik, along with David Gogerty, a doctoral student working with him on the project, believe that once more research is completed, there could be huge benefits to the biofuels industry.
“I would emphasize that we are very early on in the process,” said Bobik. “But isobutene has some special properties that could have a big impact.”
Bobik’s enzyme makes it possible to convert the glucose found naturally in plants to make isobutene. The enzyme is found naturally in about half of all organisms in the world.
While patent applications proceed, Bobik will not disclose the specific enzyme. (more…)
New Study Reaffirms Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
A paper published yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) underscores the widespread consensus among climate scientists that human activity is driving climate change. The paper will be available by the end of the day online.
The paper, written by William Anderegg, James Prall, Jacob Harold and Stephen Schneider, surveyed the work of 1,372 climate researchers. They found that nearly all published climate scientists agree that human activity is driving climate change. Their findings are consistent with a 2009 survey of scientists’ attitudes as well as a 2004 survey of the scientific literature on climate change. The Anderegg et al. paper comes on the heels of a series of NAS reports that underscore the reality of human-induced climate change and the need to respond.
“This study is consistent with other papers that have found a widespread scientific consensus that human activity is driving climate change,” said Brenda Ekwurzel, a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). “The biggest wildcard is how much we’ll change the future climate, largely due to uncertainty about how much more carbon dioxide we will dump into the atmosphere. It’s up to policymakers to act, knowing that heat-trapping emissions from burning fossil fuels are the biggest lever acting on the climate.”
A number of surveys have identified a persistent gap between how the public perceives climate science and what scientists know about global warming. Over the last few years, reporters have been giving more credence to contrarian points of view than they deserve, according to UCS. But that might be changing. On June 20, the Sunday Times of London retracted a story that misrepresented science in a story attacking the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (more…)
Human Impacts Significantly Altering Ocean Chemistry
WHOI chemist Scott Doney.(Tom Kleindinst, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Numerous studies are documenting the growing effects of climate change, carbon dioxide, pollution and other human-related phenomena on the world’s oceans. But most of those have studied single, isolated sources of pollution and other influences.
Now, a marine geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has published a report in the latest issue of the journal Science that evaluates the total impact of such factors on the ocean and considers what the future might hold.
“What we do on land—agriculture, fossil fuel combustion and pollution—can have a profound impact on the chemistry of the sea,” says Scott C. Doney, a senior scientist at WHOI and author of the Science report. “A whole range of these factors have been studied in isolation but have not been put in a single venue.”
Doney’s paper represents a meticulous compilation of the work of others as well as his own research in this area, which includes ocean acidification, climate change, and the global carbon cycle.
He concludes that climate change, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, excess nutrient inputs, and the many forms of pollution are “altering fundamentally the…ocean, often on a global scale and, in some cases, at rates greatly exceeding those in the historical and recent geological record.” (more…)
Climate Change Increases Hazard Risk in Alpine Regions
The New Zealand Alps.
Climate change could cause increasing and unpredictable hazard risks in mountainous regions, according to a new study from the University of Exeter and Austrian researchers. The study analyses the effects of two extreme weather events – the 2003 heatwave and the 2005 flood – on the Eastern European Alps. It demonstrates what impact events like these, predicted to become more frequent under a changing climate, could have on alpine regions and what implications these changes might have for local communities.
The mean summer temperatures during the 2003 heat wave in a large area of the European Alps exceeded the 1961-1990 mean by 3-5°C. This triggered a record Alpine glacier loss that was three times above the 1980-2000 average. Furthermore, melting permafrost caused increased rock-fall activity.
The severe floods that occurred as a result of heavy rainfall in August 2005 were the most damaging for 100 years and led to high volumes of water and sediment being deposited downstream, causing an estimated €555 million worth of damage in Austria to buildings, railways, roads and industrial areas. In Switzerland, this has been estimated to have caused one quarter of all damage by floods, debris flows, landslides and rock falls recorded since 1972. (more…)
Large Majority of Americans Still Believe in Global Warming, Stanford Poll Finds
Woods Institute Senior Fellow Jon Krosnick, a professor of communication and of political science at Stanford.
Three out of four Americans believe that the Earth has been gradually warming as the result of human activity and want the government to institute regulations to stop it, according to a new survey by researchers at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.
The survey was conducted by Woods Institute Senior Fellow Jon Krosnick, a professor of communication and of political science at Stanford, with funding from the National Science Foundation. The results are based on telephone interviews conducted from June 1-7 with 1,000 randomly selected American adults.
“Several national surveys released during the last eight months have been interpreted as showing that fewer and fewer Americans believe that climate change is real, human-caused and threatening to people,” Krosnick said. “But our new survey shows just the opposite.”
For example, when respondents in the June 2010 survey were asked if the Earth’s temperature probably had been heating up over the last 100 years, 74 percent said yes. And 75 percent said that human behavior was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred. Krosnick has asked similar questions in previous Woods Institute polls since 2006.
“Our surveys reveal a small decline in the proportion of people who believe global warming has been happening, from 84 percent in 2007 to 74 percent today,” Krosnick said. “Statistical analysis of our data revealed that this decline is attributable to perceptions of recent weather changes by the minority of Americans who have been skeptical about climate scientists.” (more…)
Will the Gulf Oil Spill Inspire a New Focus on Nuclear Energy in the US?
Catawba Nuclear Station is located on Lake Wylie in York County, South Carolina.
On June 3rd, spurred by the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, President Barack Obama called on Congress to roll back billions of dollars in tax breaks for oil and pass a clean-energy bill that he said would help the nation end its dependence on fossil fuels. “I will continue to make the case for a clean energy future wherever and whenever I can, and I will work with anyone to get this done,” the President said. “And we will get it done.”
Obama said the country’s continuing dependence on fossil fuels “will jeopardize our national security, it will smother our planet and will continue to put our economy and our environment at risk.” He outlined a set of goals that included improvements in energy efficiency and pursuing nuclear power.
In addition to the President, a growing number of environmentalists are urging a serious examination of nuclear power, which has an unparalleled safety record since the industry took action after the Three Mile Island incident.
As New York magazine recently reported, many leading greens have switched sides from no-nuke to pro-nuke: early Greenpeace activist Patrick Moore and former Greenpeace UK executive director Stephen Tindale; Gaia theorist James Lovelock; longtime Friends of the Earth board member Bishop Hugh Montefiore; and, most recently, environmental icon Stewart Brand, who founded the Whole Earth Catalog and helped inspire Earth Day. (more…)
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