Posts Tagged ‘human ecology’

Aquatic ‘Dead Zones’ Contributing to Climate Change

University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science oceanographer Dr. Lou Codispoti.

University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science oceanographer Dr. Lou Codispoti.

As oxygen-deprived waters increase, they emit more greenhouse gasses into atmosphere.

The increased frequency and intensity of oxygen-deprived “dead zones” along the world’s coasts can negatively impact environmental conditions in far more than just local waters. In the March 12 edition of the journal Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science oceanographer Dr. Lou Codispoti explains that the increased amount of nitrous oxide (N2O) produced in low-oxygen (hypoxic) waters can elevate concentrations in the atmosphere, further exacerbating the impacts of global warming and contributing to ozone “holes” that cause an increase in our exposure to harmful UV radiation.

“As the volume of hypoxic waters move towards the sea surface and expands along our coasts, their ability to produce the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide increases,” explains Dr. Codispoti of the UMCES Horn Point Laboratory. “With low-oxygen waters currently producing about half of the ocean’s net nitrous oxide, we could see an additional significant atmospheric increase if these ‘dead zones’ continue to expand.”

Although present in minute concentrations in Earth’s atmosphere, nitrous oxide is a highly potent greenhouse gas and is becoming a key factor in stratospheric ozone destruction. For the past 400,000 years, changes in atmospheric N2O appear to have roughly paralleled changes in carbon dioxide CO2 and have had modest impacts on climate, but this may change. Just as human activities may be causing an unprecedented rise in the terrestrial N2O sources, marine N2O production may also rise substantially as a result of nutrient pollution, warming waters and ocean acidification. Because the marine environment is a net producer of N2O, much of this production will be lost to the atmosphere, thus further intensifying its climatic impact. (more…)

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Carbon Emissions ‘Outsourced’ to Developing Countries

China is by far the largest "exporter" of carbon dioxide emissions, as seen in this map of the net flow of emissions embodied in trade among the major exporting and importing countries. Arrows indicate direction and magnitude of flow; numbers are megatons (millions of tons). (Steven Davis/Carnegie Institution for Science)

China is by far the largest "exporter" of carbon dioxide emissions, as seen in this map of the net flow of emissions embodied in trade among the major exporting and importing countries. Arrows indicate direction and magnitude of flow; numbers are megatons (millions of tons). (Steven Davis/Carnegie Institution for Science)

A  new study by scientists at the Carnegie Institution finds that over a third of carbon dioxide emissions associated with consumption of goods and services in many developed countries are actually emitted outside their borders. Some countries, such as Switzerland, “outsource” over half of their carbon dioxide emissions, primarily to developing countries. The study finds that, per person, about 2.5 tons of carbon dioxide are consumed in the U.S. but produced somewhere else. For Europeans, the figure can exceed four tons per person. Most of these emissions are outsourced to developing countries, especially China.

“Instead of looking at carbon dioxide emissions only in terms of what is released inside our borders, we also looked at the amount of carbon dioxide released during the production of the things that we consume,” says co-author Ken Caldeira, a researcher in the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology.

Caldeira and lead author Steven Davis, also at Carnegie, used published trade data from 2004 to create a global model of the flow of products across 57 industry sectors and 113 countries or regions. By allocating carbon emissions to particular products and sources, the researchers were able to calculate the net emissions “imported” or “exported” by specific countries. (more…)

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Geoengineering Solutions to Environmental Problems Could Miss Mark

 Arizona State University engineering professor Brad Allenby.

Arizona State University engineering professor Brad Allenby.

The adage says that to discover the right solutions to a problem you first have to ask the right questions.

As Arizona State University engineering professor Brad Allenby sees it, our search for technological solutions to large-scale environmental problems sometimes gets off on the wrong track largely because we’re posing the wrong questions.

Particularly in the debates about how to respond to atmospheric greenhouse gas buildup, climate change and humankind’s impact on the global environment, Allenby says, “We are often framing the discussion from narrow and overly simplistic perspectives, but what we are dealing with are systems that are highly complex. As a result, the policy solutions we come up with don’t match the challenges we are trying to respond to.”

Allenby will offer his recommendations for reframing the approach to such challenges in his Feb. 19 presentation, “Technological Change and Earth Systems: A Critique of Geoengineering,” at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Allenby is a professor in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, a part of ASU’s Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering. (more…)

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Ocean Geoengineering Scheme No Easy Fix for Global Warming

This map displays simulated additional surface warming (in Celsius) for the year 2100 caused by the temporary use of artificial upwelling in the green areas for the time period 2011-2060. (IFM-GEOMAR)

This map displays simulated additional surface warming (in Celsius) for the year 2100 caused by the temporary use of artificial upwelling in the green areas for the time period 2011-2060. (IFM-GEOMAR)

Pumping nutrient-rich water up from the deep ocean to boost algal growth in sunlit surface waters and draw carbon dioxide down from the atmosphere has been touted as a way of ameliorating global warming. However, a new study led by Professor Andreas Oschlies of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany, pours cold water on the idea.

“Computer simulations show that climatic benefits of the proposed geo-engineering scheme would be modest, with the potential to exacerbate global warming should it fail,” said study co-author Dr Andrew Yool of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS).

If international governmental policies fail to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to levels needed to keep the impacts of human-induced climate change within acceptable limits it may necessary to move to ‘Plan B’. This could involve the implementation of one or more large-scale geo-engineering schemes proposed for reducing the carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere. (more…)

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Alternative Futures of a Warming World

Lead author Richard Moss, a scientist with the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Lead author Richard Moss, a scientist with the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

An international team of climate scientists will take a new approach to modeling the Earth’s climate future, according to a paper in 11 February Nature. The next set of models will include, for the first time, tightly linked analyses of greenhouse gas emissions, projections of the Earth’s climate, impacts of climate change, and human decision-making.

This approach will influence the next international scientific assessment undertaken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It will provide the framework for thousands of individual scientific studies on climate impacts and adaptation, climate modeling, and changes in the way societies generate and use energy.

“This is an open-ended approach that enables us to compare the environmental and socio-economic effects of different potential responses to climate change,” said lead author Richard Moss, a scientist with the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory who performs climate change impacts research at the Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, Md. Moss has been a long-time contributor to the IPCC, previously directed the office of the US Global Change Research Program, and served as vice president for climate programs at the World Wildlife Fund.

“This comparative evaluation is extremely important to determine the technical, policy and economic requirements for reaching whatever society decides is a safe level of climate change. We hope to provide decision-makers with better tools to help people deal with a shifting climate,” he said. (more…)

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Catastrophe Denied: The Science of the Skeptic’s Position

by Warren Meyer, climate-skeptic.com

Once upon a time, Al Gore had a PowerPoint deck. Several years ago, I came to the conclusion that Gore’s presentation was deeply flawed, so I made my own PowerPoint deck in response, and have been updating it ever since. Here is the most recent version

Catastrophe Denied: The Science of the Skeptics Position (studio version) from Warren Meyer on Vimeo.

Then, Al Gore made a movie from his PowerPoint deck. He won an Oscar and a Nobel prize for his movie. Those are a bit out of my reach, so I will have to settle for actually being right. My previous movie showed my PowerPoint deck presented to a live audience, and can still be found online here. I felt the sound quality could be improved and the narration could be tighter, so I went into the “studio” to create a tighter version. The product of this is what I believe to be my best effort yet at explaining, in a comprehensive but simple manner, the science of the skeptic’s position to laymen.

Warren Meyer is the author of the web-site climate-skeptic.com, a site he originally started to help report climate developments in layman’s terms, particularly the science of the skeptic’s position. Warren has a degree in mechanical and aerospace engineering from Princeton University, where his studies focused on the control and stability of dynamic systems, issues at the very heart of the climate debate. He also has extensive experience with forecasting of dynamic and complex systems, with an MBA from Harvard University and years of experience with planning and forecasting at several Fortune 50 companies. Currently Warren runs a company called Recreation Resource Management, based in Phoenix, whose business is the private management of public parks and recreation.

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Oceans Reveal Further Impacts of Climate Change

Antarctic marine biologist Jim McClintock.

Antarctic marine biologist Jim McClintock.

The increasing acidity of the world’s oceans - and that acidity’s growing threat to marine species - are definitive proof that the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is causing climate change is also negatively affecting the marine environment, says world-renowned Antarctic marine biologist Jim McClintock, Ph.D., professor in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Department of Biology.

“The oceans are a sink for the carbon dioxide that is released into the atmosphere,” says McClintock, who has spent more than two decades researching the marine species off the coast of Antarctica. Carbon dioxide is absorbed by oceans, and through a chemical process hydrogen ions are released to make seawater more acidic.

“Existing data points to consistently increasing oceanic acidity, and that is a direct result of increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere; it is incontrovertible,” McClintock says. “The ramifications for many of the organisms that call the water home are profound.”

A substance’s level of acidity is measured by its pH value; the lower the pH value, the more acidic is the substance. McClintock says data collected since the pre-industrial age indicates the mean surface pH of the oceans has declined from 8.2 to 8.1 units with another 0.4 unit decline possible by century’s end. A single whole pH unit drop would make ocean waters 10 times more acidic, which could rob many marine organisms of their ability to produce protective shells - and tip the balance of marine food chains.

“There is no existing data that I am aware of that can be used to debate the trend of increasing ocean acidification,” he says. (more…)

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Majority of Americans Still Support Passage of Federal Climate and Energy Policies

Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change.

Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change.

Despite a sharp drop in public concern over global warming, Americans—regardless of political affiliation—support the passage of federal climate and energy policies, according to the results of a national survey released today by researchers at Yale and George Mason universities.

The survey found support for:

* Funding more research on renewable energy, such as solar and wind power (85 percent)

* Tax rebates for people buying fuel-efficient vehicles or solar panels (82 percent)

* Establishing programs to teach Americans how to save energy (72 percent)

* Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant (71 percent)

* School curricula to teach children about the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to global warming (70 percent)

* Signing an international treaty that requires the United States to cut emissions of carbon dioxide 90 percent by the year 2050 (61 percent)

* Establishing programs to teach Americans about global warming (60 percent).

“Surprisingly, majorities of both Republicans and Democrats support many of these policies, including renewable energy research, tax rebates, regulating carbon dioxide, and expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change. “Further, majorities in both parties support returning revenues from a cap-and-trade system to American households to offset higher energy costs, perhaps opening a pathway for Congressional action.”

Sixty percent of Americans, however, said they have heard “nothing at all” about the cap-and-trade legislation currently being considered by Congress. Only 12 percent had heard “a lot.” (more…)

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‘Geoengineer’ the Planet’s Atmosphere Urge Some Climate Change Experts

U of C scientist David Keith.

U of C scientist David Keith.

Internationally coordinated research and field-testing on ‘geoengineering’ the planet’s atmosphere to limit risk of climate change should begin soon along with building international governance of the technology, say scientists from the University of Calgary and the United States.

Collaborative and government-supported studies on solar-radiation management, a form of geo-engineering, would reduce the risk of nations’ unilateral experiments and help identify technologies with the least risk, says U of C scientist David Keith, in an article published in the Jan. 27 online edition of Nature. Co-authors of the opinion piece are Edward Parson at the University of Michigan and Granger Morgan at Carnegie Mellon University.

“Solar-radiation management may be the only human response that can fend off rapid and high-consequence climate change impacts. The risks of not doing research outweigh the risks of doing it,” says Keith, director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy’s energy and environmental systems group and a professor in the Schulich School of Engineering.

Solar-radiation management (SRM) would involve releasing megatonnes of light-scattering aerosol particles in the upper atmosphere to reduce Earth’s absorption of solar energy, thereby cooling the planet. Another technique would be to release particles of sea salt to make low-altitude clouds reflect more solar energy back into space. (more…)

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Managing Ecosystems in a Changing Climate

ESA President Mary Power

ESA President Mary Power

Global warming may impair the ability of ecosystems to perform vital services—such as providing food, clean water and carbon sequestration—says the nation’s largest organization of ecological scientists. In a statement released today, the Ecological Society of America (ESA) outlines strategies that focus on restoring and maintaining natural ecosystem functions to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

“Decision-makers cannot overlook the critical services ecosystems provide,” says ESA President Mary Power. “If we are going to reduce the possibility of irreversible damage to the environment under climate change, we need to take swift but measured action to protect and manage our ecosystems.”

ESA recommends four approaches to limiting adverse effects of climate change through ecosystem management:

Prioritize low-alteration strategies. Many ecosystems sequester a sizable amount of carbon—simply allowing them to function naturally can significantly help mitigation efforts. Deforestation, for example, has a two-fold impact: removing agents of carbon sequestration—trees in this instance—while simultaneously releasing stored carbon. Therefore, preserving forests is a straightforward way to both reduce and offset emissions.

Critically evaluate management-intensive strategies. Management strategies that seek to increase carbon sequestration above natural levels should undergo thorough life-cycle analysis and evaluation prior to implementation. For example, increasing carbon uptake on agricultural lands—one approach to enhancing the sequestration potential of ecosystems—typically requires more fertilizer than standard processes; the tradeoff, therefore, is higher emissions and pollution associated with fertilizer production. (more…)

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The Asia-Pacific Partnership and the Kyoto Protocols: In Conflict or Cooperation?

Aynsley Kellow from the University of Tasmania

Aynsley Kellow from the University of Tasmania

President Obama’s visit to China before December’s Copenhagen conference underlined views that the international strategy to tackle climate change truly hinges on cooperation between the United States and the developing Asian economies. This relationship, as represented in the Asia-Pacific Partnership (APP), is controversial to environmental analysts. In two papers published today in WIREs Climate Change, analysts debate the significance of the APP and its role as an alternative to the Kyoto treaty.

Launched in 2006, the APP is a non-treaty agreement between the United States, Australia, Canada, India, Japan, South Korea and, perhaps most importantly, the People’s Republic of China. It is increasingly seen as a viable agreement between the United States and the emerging Asian economies, yet is criticised for not being legally binding.

“[The APP] has been hailed as a new model for an international climate agreement and as an alternative to the Kyoto protocol,” said Ros Taplin from Bond University in Australia. “However implementation has had challenges. As an opposing model to Kyoto it is a contravention of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) principle of common, but differentiated responsibilities.” (more…)

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Climate Conditions in 2050 Crucial to Avoid Harmful Impacts in 2100

"Setting mid-century targets can help preserve long-term policy options while managing the risks and costs that come with long-term goals," says co-lead author Brian O'Neill, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

"Setting mid-century targets can help preserve long-term policy options while managing the risks and costs that come with long-term goals," says co-lead author Brian O'Neill, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

While governments around the world continue to explore strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a new study suggests policymakers should focus on what needs to be achieved in the next 40 years in order to keep long-term options viable for avoiding dangerous levels of warming.

The study is the first of its kind to use a detailed energy system model to analyze the relationship between mid-century targets and the likelihood of achieving long-term outcomes.

“Setting mid-century targets can help preserve long-term policy options while managing the risks and costs that come with long-term goals,” says co-lead author Brian O’Neill, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The study, conducted with co-authors at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, is being published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It was funded by IIASA, a European Young Investigator Award to O’Neill, and the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor.

The researchers used a computer simulation known as an integrated assessment model to represent interactions between the energy sector and the climate system. They began with “business as usual” scenarios, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2000 report, that project future greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of climate policy. They then analyzed the implications of restricting emissions in 2050, using a range of levels. (more…)

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Overwhelming Majority of Americans Support Global Warming Action in Poll

global-warming-91The overwhelming majority of Americans support action to limit carbon pollution and move the U.S. toward a clean energy future, according to a new poll released today by National Wildlife Federation.

“The American people can’t be more clear when it comes to solving global warming: they want the U.S. to be Rudolph out in front of the sleigh, leading the world toward a clean energy future,” said Jeremy Symons, senior vice president of NWF. “There is overwhelming public support for the Senate to pass legislation with firm limits on carbon pollution that will stimulate massive new investments in clean energy technologies.”

American voters demonstrate a strong desire for the U.S. to transition toward a low-carbon economy, with strong support among Independents.
• Strikingly, 82 percent voters and 80 percent of Independents, support the U.S. government increasing investment in clean energy sources. (more…)

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Disproportionate Effects of Global Warming and Pollution on Disadvantaged Communities

Sylvia Hood Washington, Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Justice, and Research Associate Professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health.

Sylvia Hood Washington, Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Justice, and Research Associate Professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health.

Global warming, pollution, and the environmental consequences of energy production impose a greater burden on low-income, disadvantaged communities, and strategies to prevent these inequities are urgently needed. A provocative collection of articles on climate justice presents the global implications of climate change and its effects on human health and the environment in a special issue of Environmental Justice, a peer-reviewed journal published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. The entire issue is available online at www.liebertpub.com/env

This important series of articles emerged from a conference on climate justice held earlier this year in New York City, co-hosted by West Harlem Environmental Action (WE ACT) and the Environmental Justice Leadership Forum on Climate Change. WE ACT, an active participant in the climate debate and the environmental justice movement, compiled the special issue under the leadership of Guest Editor Peggy Shepard.

The articles explore a range of topics, including “The Environmental Injustice of ‘Clean Coal’,” by Stephanie Tyree and Maron Greenleaf and “Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Environmental Justice,” by Jalonne White-Newsome and colleagues. The issue offers both a global perspective in “The International Dimension of Climate Justice and the Need for International Adaptation Funding,” by J. Timmons Roberts, and a focus on more local concerns, including “Minding the Climate Gap: Environmental Health and Equity Implications of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in California,” by Seth Shonkoff and coauthors, and “Best in Show? Climate and Environmental Justice Policy in California,” by Julie Sze et al. (more…)

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Climate Change Is Shifting Ecosystems

Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology.

Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology.

Global warming is causing climate belts to shift toward the poles and to higher elevations. To keep pace with these changes, the average ecosystem will need to shift about a quarter mile each year, says a new study led by scientists at the Carnegie Institution. For some habitats, such as low-lying areas, climate belts are moving even faster, putting many species in jeopardy, especially where human development has blocked migration paths.

“Expressed as velocities, climate-change projections connect directly to survival prospects for plants and animals. These are the conditions that will set the stage, whether species move or cope in place,” says study co-author Chris Field, director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology. Field is also a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford University and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment.

The research team, which included researchers from the Carnegie Institution, Stanford University, the California Academy of Sciences, and the University of California, Berkeley, combined data on current climate and temperature gradients worldwide with climate model projections for the next century to calculate the “temperature velocity” for different regions of the world. This velocity is a measure of how fast temperature zones are moving across the landscape as the planet warms?and how fast plants and animals will need to migrate to keep up. (more…)

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What Green Lessons Can We Learn from COP15?

what-green-lessonsThe UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, known as “COP15,” faced a simple problem – how do you hold a global conference on the environment without increasing greenhouse gas emissions, wasting paper and otherwise being un-green?

Not surprisingly, the Climate Change Conference answered all these questions correctly and more, producing a successfully green conference of an enormous magnitude. What can we take away from the UN’s success? The knowledge that if a large scale operation can be green, there is no reason that businesses can’t act similarly on a smaller scale.

First, start with a green city for the summit. The Economist Intelligence Unit just completed a survey of 30 European cities and found Copenhagen was the greenest based on: CO2 emissions; energy; buildings; transportation; water; air quality; waste and land use; and environmental governance.

Second, plan it to be green. The Danish Foreign Ministry said, “COP15 is organized following BS8901, a sustainable management standard. BS8901 was developed for the sustainable organization of the 2012 Olympic Games in London.” What was done and what effects it had will be published in March 2010 as the Copenhagen Sustainable Meetings Protocol. This will be a case study that future meetings can use as a guide. (more…)

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Global Temperatures Could Rise More Than Expected, New Study Shows

Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale.

Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale.

The kinds of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide taking place today could have a significantly larger effect on global temperatures than previously thought, according to a new study led by Yale University geologists. Their findings appear December 20 in the advanced online edition of Nature Geoscience.

The team demonstrated that only a relatively small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was associated with a period of substantial warming in the mid- and early-Pliocene era, between three to five million years ago, when temperatures were approximately 3 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today.

Climate sensitivity—the mean global temperature response to a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2—is estimated to be 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, using current models.

“These models take into account only relatively fast feedbacks, such as changes in atmospheric water vapor and the distribution of sea ice, clouds and aerosols,” said Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale and lead author of the paper. “We wanted to look at Earth-system climate sensitivity, which includes the effects of long-term feedbacks such as change in continental ice-sheets, terrestrial ecosystems and greenhouse gases other than CO2.” (more…)

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Into the Heart of the Climate Debate

The cover of Chemical & Engineering News shows arctic ice in 2007 -- the lowest amount on record, with an open Northwest Passage visible. C&EN features a major analysis of the divisive issues at the heart of the global climate change debate. (The American Chemical Society)

The cover of Chemical & Engineering News shows arctic ice in 2007 -- the lowest amount on record, with an open Northwest Passage visible. C&EN features a major analysis of the divisive issues at the heart of the global climate change debate. (The American Chemical Society)

Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN), the weekly news magazine of the world’s largest scientific society, today published a major analysis of the divisive issues at the heart of the debate over global warming and climate change. The article appears at the conclusion of the much-publicized United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which sought to seal a comprehensive international agreement on dealing with global warming. An embargoed text is available to journalists upon request.

C&EN’s 8,900-word cover story notes that global warming believers and skeptics actually agree on a cluster of core points:

-  Earth’s atmospheric load of carbon dioxide — the main greenhouse gas — has increased since the Industrial Revolution began in the late 1700s.

- Carbon dioxide bloat results largely from burning of coal and other fossil fuels. ? Average global temperatures have risen since 1850, with most of the warming occurring since 1970.

“But here is where the cordial agreements stop,” writes Stephen K. Ritter, a senior correspondent for C&EN, a publication of the 154,000-member American Chemical Society. “At the heart of the global warming debate is whether warming is directly the result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 levels, or if it is simply part of Earth’s natural climatic variation.” (more…)

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International Climate Change: Dispatches from Copenhagen

by Adam Airoldi & Cate Cogger

Adam Airoldi at World Wildlife Fund "ice bear" exhibit in Copenhagen.

Adam Airoldi at World Wildlife Fund "ice bear" exhibit in Copenhagen.

Adam Airoldi, a graduate student in forest ecology and management at Michigan Technological University, and Cate Cogger, an undergraduate in environmental anthropology, spent several days at the United Nations’ international climate change conference in Copenhagen this week. Here are their first-hand reports:.

Adam: “Walking around the centrum (downtown), the first thing I noticed were all the police officers and vehicles stationed at every corner. In addition there are helicopters flying all over and skiffs patrolling the canals.

The next thing I noted was the abundance of bicycles. It seems that the people of Copenhagen are taking personal responsibility for climate
impacts, turning as a group to cycling for their means of transportation. The city is well set up for this, with bicycle lanes as wide as sidewalks, and although the cyclists can sometimes clog the bridges and intersections, it is hard to imagine the same number of cars fitting into downtown. The use of bicycles is not a recent development, however. It points to a culture that is active and sensible enough to make use of efficient personal transport.

The climate talks that are going on in the Bella Center are only for delegates and a few chosen members of media and society. Last winter I submitted an application on behalf of Michigan Tech, to try to gain admittance to the talks, but after a long series of letters, emails and phone calls to establish the existence of Tech, it was decided that we would not be allowed to observe the talks. (more…)

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Preparing the U.S. Southeast for Global Warming

Edward O. Wilson, Pulitzer-prize winning author and Harvard University professor emeritus.

Edward O. Wilson, Pulitzer-prize winning author and Harvard University professor emeritus.

A good-news global warming story about a pine tree with a storied past promises that a back-to-the-future approach will provide economic opportunities and help prepare the southeastern U.S. for a changing climate.

Restoring longleaf pine ecosystems across the Southeast will boost the economy and help the region cope with global warming’s expanding effects, according to a new report from national and regional conservation groups. Standing Tall: How Restoring the Longleaf Pine Can Help Prepare the Southeast for Global Warming has been released by the National Wildlife Federation and two southeast forest conservation groups, America’s Longleaf, and The Longleaf Alliance.

The report highlights the latest scientific research on global warming’s effects in the Southeast and how it puts southern forests at risk. The report also describes how longleaf pine forests are uniquely resilient to the long term impacts of global warming and the opportunities they present for forest landowners, especially minority and underserved landowners throughout the southern region.

“It is time for the longleaf pine forest to come to national attention,” said Edward O. Wilson, Pulitzer-prize winning author and Harvard University professor emeritus. “A substantial part of America’s environmental future is tied to this one species, which dominates the trees in the land it occupies. The longleaf also holds the key to an important part of the future economy of the southeastern United States.” (more…)

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Climate Projections Underestimate CO2 Impact

climate-change-88The climate may be 30–50 percent more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the long term than previously thought, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience this week.

Projections over the next hundreds of years of climate conditions, including global temperatures, may need to be adjusted to reflect this higher sensitivity.

“Climate change is affecting water supplies for cities and farms; leading to more severe droughts, hurricanes, and floods; contributing to more intense forest fires; and putting coastal communities at risk,” said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, who is on his way to the global climate change conference convening this week in Copenhagen. “This study and the ongoing work of our USGS scientists will help us continue to build more precise long-term projections and to prepare for the impacts of climate change on our world.”

A team of scientists, led by the University of Bristol and including the U.S. Geological Survey, studied global temperatures 3.3 to 3 million years ago, finding that the averages were significantly higher than expected from the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time.

These underestimates occurred because the long-term sensitivity of the Earth system was not accurately taken into account. In these earlier periods, Earth had more time to adjust to some of the slower impacts of climate change. For example, as the climate warms and ice sheets melt, Earth will absorb more sunlight and continue to warm in the future since less ice is present to reflect the sun. (more…)

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Understanding Ocean Climate Change

This image shows ocean temperature at the 100 m depth and sea ice thickness in Sept. 2006 from the 8 km resolution global model. (NOCS)

This image shows ocean temperature at the 100 m depth and sea ice thickness in Sept. 2006 from the 8 km resolution global model. (NOCS)

High-resolution computer simulations performed by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS) are helping to understand the inflow of North Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean and how this influences ocean climate.

The summer of 2007 saw a record retreat in Arctic sea ice, and in general Arctic climate has become steadily warmer since the early 1990s. This has changed both sea ice drift and upper ocean circulation.

The warm North Atlantic water intrudes into the central Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, the deep channel between Greenland and Spitsbergen that connects the Nordic Seas to the Arctic Ocean, contributing to sea ice melting.

“We need to understand what is going on because changes in the Arctic Ocean can influence climate around the world,” said Dr Yevgeny Aksenov of NOCS: “The worry is that freshwater from melting ice and increased atmospheric precipitation in the Arctic could ultimately slow the overturning circulation of the North Atlantic, with serious consequences for global climate.” (more…)

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Sea Level Rising Along U.S. Atlantic Coast According to Environmental Scientists

new-york-oceanAn international team of environmental scientists led by the University of Pennsylvania has shown that sea-level rise along the Atlantic Coast of the United States was 2 millimeters faster in the 20th century than at any time in the past 4,000 years.

Sea-level rise prior to the 20th century is attributed to coastal subsidence. Put simply, land is being lost to subsidence as the earth continues to rise in response to the removal of the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period. Using sediment cores from the U.S. Atlantic coast, researchers found significant spatial variations in land movement, with the mid-Atlantic coastlines of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland subsiding twice as much as areas to the north and south. Coastal subsidence enhances sea-level rise, which leads to shoreline erosion and loss of wetlands and threatens coastal populations.

Researchers corrected relative sea-level data from tide gauges using the coastal-subsidence values. Results clearly show that the 20th-century rate of sea-level rise is 2 millimeters higher than the background rate of the past 4,000 years. Furthermore, the magnitude of the sea-level rise increases in a southerly direction from Maine to South Carolina. This is the first demonstrated evidence of this phenomenon from observational data alone. Researchers believe this may be related to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ocean thermal expansion. (more…)

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Fragmented Tropical Forests Store Less Biomass and Carbon Dioxide

by Tilo Arnhold

Around 88 per cent of the coastal rain forest Mata Atlantica in Brazil has already been cleared. Sometimes just tiny forest fragments are left over. (Dr. Henning Steinicke/UFZ)

Around 88 per cent of the coastal rain forest Mata Atlantica in Brazil has already been cleared. Sometimes just tiny forest fragments are left over. (Dr. Henning Steinicke/UFZ)

Conserving continuous forests is important for mitigation of climate change.

Deforestation in tropical rain forests could have an even greater impact on climate change than has previously been thought. The combined biomass of a large number of small forest fragments left over after habitat fragmentation can be up to 40 per cent less than in a continuous natural forest of the same overall size. This is the conclusion reached by German and Brazilian researchers who used a simulation model on data from the Atlantic Forest, a coastal rain forest in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, around 88 per cent of which has already been cleared. The remaining forest fragments are smaller, so the ratio between area and edge is less favourable. The reason for the reduction in biomass is the higher mortality rate of trees at the edges of forest fragments, according to the results published by researchers from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research and the University of São Paulo in Ecological Modelling. This reduces the number of big old trees, which contain a disproportionately high amount of biomass.

Altered wind conditions and light climate lead to a general change in the microclimate at the forest edges. Big old trees are particularly vulnerable to these factors. With the help of FORMIND, a forest simulation software developed at the UFZ, the researchers modelled different sizes of forest patches left over after landscape fragmentation. The smaller a patch of forest is, the worse is the ratio between edge and area. Simulation results suggest that a natural tropical forest of our study area contained approximately 250 tonnes of aboveground biomass per hectare, a forest fragment measuring 100 hectares has around 228 tonnes of biomass per hectare, while a patch of rain forest measuring one hectare has only 140 tonnes of biomass per hectare. In other words, the biomass in the forest remnants in this study fell by as much as 40 per cent. “This finding is of great significance for the function of rain forests as a biomass store. It is important to be clear about the fact that we are losing more than just the deforested areas. Even the remaining forest is thinned out as a result. It is a mistake to think only in terms of total area. We have to start thinking in terms of the spatial configuration of the remaining forest fragments as well,” says Dr Jürgen Groeneveld of the UFZ, explaining the significance of the study for climate policy. As well as the biomass yield per hectare, these fragmentation-related spatial (edge) effects also have impacts on climate balance and biodiversity, i.e. on several dimensions of sustainability.

Coastal rain forest Mata Atlantica in Brazil. Compared to a natural tropical forest, the results of a study suggest a falling biomass of up to 40 per cent for fragmented forests. (Dr. Christoph Knogge/UFZ)

Coastal rain forest Mata Atlantica in Brazil. Compared to a natural tropical forest, the results of a study suggest a falling biomass of up to 40 per cent for fragmented forests. (Dr. Christoph Knogge/UFZ)

The simulation integrated results from other researchers who are conducting unique long-term experiments on fragmentation in Amazonas. However, a large number of questions remain unanswered: Are the edges stable? Can the forest regenerate or does the degradation continue inwards? The researchers therefore view the figures as a preliminary, cautious estimate. “But if it is confirmed, it is a really fundamental finding,” adds Dr Sandro Pütz of the UFZ. “Forest fragments cannot perform in the same way as continuous forests.” The researchers therefore intend to investigate the long-term effects over the coming years to find out how the rain forest remnants develop in the long term. The results of this study will also have fundamental consequences for forest conservation, at least in terms of the carbon balance: “In any case, in terms of carbon storage, it is better to protect 100 continuous hectares than to protect 100 one-hectare patches,” says Jürgen Groeneveld.

The data used in the model come from the tropical coastal rain forest in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The Atlantic Forest was severely deforested in the second half of the 19th century for construction timber, charcoal and grazing and arable land. Although only around an eighth of the original forest area remains, these remnants are still regarded as international biodiversity hot spots, since they are home to an as yet not fully recorded, but impressive number of endangered animal and plant species that are not found anywhere else. Since 2003, Brazilian and German researchers have therefore been investigating the long-term effects of landscape fragmentation on habitats in the Atlantic Forest, which used to stretch along the whole of Brazil’s east coast and is today one of the most endangered rain forests in the world.

The new findings from the ecological modelling experts led by Andreas Huth and Klaus Henle are also relevant for negotiations at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen. Under the heading REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation), the conference will be discussing a mechanism for including the forests in climate protection. Forests bind carbon dioxide. Deforestation or degradation of forests leads to a further release or less fixing of carbon dioxide per unit area, thereby increasing the greenhouse effect. Around 20 per cent of total global CO2 emissions comes from the destruction of forests.

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