Gore Would Have Been No Different on Iraq than Bush Says Researcher
Professor Frank Harvey says "counterfactual analysis" is common practice when evaluating historical events or when testing social scientific theory.
With the second Bush presidency now over, academics and armchair scholars alike are looking back at the presidential decisions of the past eight years.
Frank Harvey is no exception.
With his latest paper for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute (CDFAI), the Dalhousie political scientist is challenging the popular consensus that an Al Gore presidency would have gone down a fundamentally different path. In particular, he argues Gore would have invaded Iraq just as President Bush did, and in doing so, pieces together what he considers to be a stronger explanation of the decision to invade in the first place.
“I was never convinced that what seemed to be emerging as the conventional wisdom on the decision to invade Iraq was complete enough,” he explains. “I thought that one way to approach that weak theory was to revisit that history and change the theory’s key variable – replace Bush with a Gore administration.” (more…)
Politicians Can Use Fear to Manipulate the Uninformed Public
A new study in the American Journal of Political Science explores how and when politicians can use fear to manipulate the public into supporting policies they might otherwise oppose. Politicians’ use of fear is more likely with regard to topics that are abstract and difficult for citizens (and/or the media) to observe.
Arthur Lupia and Jesse O. Menning examined how select attributes of fear affect a politician’s ability to scare citizens into supporting policies that they would otherwise reject. They argue that politicians’ use of fear will depend on critical aspects of mass psychology. (more…)
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