Military Scenerios Through Virtual Worlds
Advances in computerized modeling and prediction of group behavior, together with improvements in video game graphics, are making possible virtual worlds in which defense analysts can explore and predict results of many different possible military and policy actions, say computer science researchers at the University of Maryland in a commentary published in the November 27 issue of the journal Science.
“Defense analysts can understand the repercussions of their proposed recommendations for policy options or military actions by interacting with a virtual world environment….They can propose a policy option and walk skeptical commanders through a virtual world where the commander can literally ’see’ how things might play out. This process gives the commander a view of the most likely strengths and weaknesses of any particular course of action,” write authors V.S. Subrahmanian, a Maryland computer science professor and director of the University’s Institute for Advanced Computer Studies (UMIACS), and John Dickerson, a UMIACS computer science researcher.
Computer scientists now know pretty much how to do this, and have created a “pretty good chunk” of the computing theory and software required to build a virtual Afghanistan, Pakistan or another “world,” explains Subrahmanian, who notes that much of the leading edge of this work has been done at the University of Maryland. (more…)
Gore Would Have Been No Different on Iraq than Bush Says Researcher
Professor Frank Harvey says "counterfactual analysis" is common practice when evaluating historical events or when testing social scientific theory.
With the second Bush presidency now over, academics and armchair scholars alike are looking back at the presidential decisions of the past eight years.
Frank Harvey is no exception.
With his latest paper for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute (CDFAI), the Dalhousie political scientist is challenging the popular consensus that an Al Gore presidency would have gone down a fundamentally different path. In particular, he argues Gore would have invaded Iraq just as President Bush did, and in doing so, pieces together what he considers to be a stronger explanation of the decision to invade in the first place.
“I was never convinced that what seemed to be emerging as the conventional wisdom on the decision to invade Iraq was complete enough,” he explains. “I thought that one way to approach that weak theory was to revisit that history and change the theory’s key variable – replace Bush with a Gore administration.” (more…)
Conflict and War Threatens Sustainability in Earth’s Richest Biological Regions
A woman carries palm kernels in Liberia's Jalays town. In many biodiversity hotspots, local people rely on available natural resources for income, food and other survival needs. (© CI/photo by Michael Matarasso)
In a startling result, a new study published by the scientific journal Conservation Biology found that more than 80 percent of the world’s major armed conflicts from 1950-2000 occurred in regions identified as the most biologically diverse and threatened places on Earth.
Titled “Warfare in Biodiversity Hotspots,” the study by leading international conservation scientists compared major conflict zones with the Earth’s 34 biodiversity hotspots identified by Conservation International (CI). The hotspots (www.biodiversityhotspots.org) are considered top conservation priorities because they contain the entire populations of more than half of all plant species and at least 42 percent of all vertebrates, and are highly threatened.
(more…)
Atomic Scientists Call on Administration to Reduce Nuclear Threat
Leon Lederman, the 1988 Nobel Laureate in physics and former director of the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, has been chair of the Board of Sponsors since 2001. ( Fermilab)
Lawrence Krauss, a theoretical physicist and cosmologist at Arizona State University, will co-chair the Board of Sponsors of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists with Nobel Laureate Leon Lederman. Together they plan to re-energize a national discussion on the reduction of nuclear weapons stockpiles, and a commitment to fight proliferation and encourage disarmament efforts.
“With a new administration in Washington, it will be an unprecedented opportunity to re-examine our policy on missile defense, nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation and nuclear energy,” says Krauss, who is director of a new origins initiative at Arizona State University.
“There are a number of different areas where U.S. policy has been stagnant or gone backwards, and there is a tremendous need for a sensible strategy,” says Krauss. “We will use the talent and reputation of the Board of Sponsors to be leading voices; to reinvigorate and raise the profile on these nuclear-related issues, so vital to our long-term peace and safety.”
(more…)
Beyond the War on Terrorism: The 21st Century’s Dilemma
by Blake Harris
Originally published in Visions magazine several years ago.
The dark side of the 21st century erupted into broad view on September 11. The unthinkable happened. And in a very real sense, our golden age of technological innocence ended.
In the kind of lesson that can only be gleaned from raw tragedy, we rediscovered that technology in human hands is a two-edged sword. What technology builds, it can also destroy. That which brings order can also create chaos. A growing power to help also unleashes increasing power to harm in the hands of the hate-filled fanatic. (more…)
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